THE Export Development Council (EDC) is set to release new targets for the Philippine Export Development Plan (PEDP) this week, which will likely be revised lower, though exporters remain hopeful about single-digit growth in exports next year.
“The figures we will share during the National Export Congress … (will be) significantly lower for the next three years,” Export Marketing Bureau Director and EDC Executive Director Bianca Pearl R. Sykimte said on the sidelines of the opening ceremony for National Exporters’ Week.
She said the projections, when originally formulated, had reflected assumptions of a strong recovery post-pandemic, which were ultimately not sustained.
Launched in 2023, the PEDP had projected exports of $240.5 billion by 2028 after they came in at $112.7 billion in 2022.
For 2025, the PEDP estimated exports at $163.6 billion. In 2026 and 2027, the corresponding totals were $186.7 billion and $212.1 billion, respectively.
She said the revised PEDP to be issued on Friday will outline the revised targets for the 2025-2028 period, as well as the initiatives that the department plans to implement for the next three years.
“We were at the point of recovery from COVID, so medyo nahatak ’yung growth figures (the growth was assumed to reflect a strong recovery). When we simulated the figures… the projections were quite high, so basically hindi nasustain ’yung upward momentum (the momentum was not sustained),” she added.
After averaging $7.2 billion in merchandise exports for the last five months, Ms. Sykimte said total exports are likely to come in at around $110 billion and up to $113.42 billion, which was the previous export target under the Philippine Development Plan (PDP).
In August, the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) upwardly adjusted the export target in the PDP to $115.49 billion for 2025.
Preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority indicate that total exports in the first 10 months hit $70.43 billion, up from $61.9 billion a year earlier.
Last year, total exports, which include services exports, amounted to $106.6 billion.
If total exports hit $110 billion this year, it would amount to 3.19% export growth.
Ms. Sykimte said the US reciprocal tariffs caused many shipments from the Philippines to be front-loaded this year to get the goods to the US before higher tariffs took effect.
“So our exports to the US are up by, I think, by 10%,” she said, noting that she expects growth to normalize in the next few months.
Trade Secretary Ma. Cristina A. Roque said the recent US tariff exemption granted to agricultural products will also help increase exports to the US.
“But for those that are in the other industries, rest assured, we are still negotiating, and we are still fighting for the different industries of the Philippines,” she said.
However, she cited the need for exporters to diversify to other markets.
“Let’s not limit our exports to just one country so that just in case something happens, we still have many other countries that we can rely on. And of course, the more countries we export to, the more sales and the more income that we will generate,” she added.
She was positive about the expected signing of free trade agreements with the United Arab Emirates, Chile, and the European Union.
Meanwhile, Philippine Exporters Confederation, Inc. President Sergio R. Ortiz-Luis, Jr. said that he expects exports to grow in the single digits next year.
“If we get 7%, that’s good,” he added.
“I hope we can make some headway in our agricultural exports. But just a little bit,” he added. — Justine Irish D. Tabile