PHILIPPINE PRODUCTION of palay (unmilled rice) is expected to decline 0.16% to 19.6 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2025-2026, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said.
In a report, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Manila said palay production during the MY, which runs between July 2025 and June 2026, is expected to decline from 19.64 MMT in the previous MY.
The USDA attributed the decrease in production to weaker-than-projected fourth-quarter output following typhoon-related losses and challenging post-harvest conditions.
Milled rice production is also projected to decline 0.16% to 12.35 MMT.
Rice consumption is projected to increase to 17.6 MMT from 17.4 MMT in the previous MY, while ending stocks are likely to fall to 2.95 MMT from 3.8 MMT previously.
“Consumption remains strong, driven by population growth and stable retail prices … Likewise, FAS Manila estimates ending stocks to decline because of lower production and reduced imports,” the USDA said.
The USDA said corn production is also projected to decline 0.73% to 8.27 MMT.
“Despite a strong harvest earlier in Q2 2025, overall output was reduced as weather disruptions offset gains from improved yields and government support,” the USDA said.
Corn consumption is projected to increase to 10.15 MMT from 9.9 MMT in the previous MY.
“FAS Manila estimates total corn consumption to increase, driven by growth in the broiler, layer, pet food, and recovering swine industries, with food, seed, and industrial (FSI) remaining robust,” the report said.
Total wheat consumption is also projected to increase 6.15% to 6.9 MMT.
“Growth in milling wheat consumption is supported by increasing demand for bread, pasta, and biscuits … Feed wheat consumption is estimated to rise as the swine, poultry, and pet food industries continue to expand, offsetting the decline in aquaculture,” the USDA said.
Meanwhile, the USDA said the Philippine food supply, or the total milled rice-equivalent volume of rice, corn and wheat, is projected to increase 1.78% to 25.8 MMT in the current MY. — Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel